Game of Thrones Theorycraft: the reasons for the (weird) seasons 

In Westeros, summer and winter can last for years, even generations, at a time, with seemingly no pattern as to when they start and stop. The elongated seasons are one of the most enduring mysteries of the 

universe, and not one we’re going to conclusively solve here—there simply isn’t enough information. We are, however, going to dive into the effects the erratic seasons have on the people of Westeros, explore some theories as to their origin, and forecast how bringing them back into balance could be hugely consequential for our characters.

People in Westeros build their lives around the changing of the seasons. They plan trade routes around autumn storms, stockpile crops to last through the long winter, and in some cases even undergo seasonal migrations (in 

, it’s mentioned that people from the countryside pile into the winter town outside Winterfell come the cold). It’s theorized that the long seasons—particularly the long winters—are the reason Westeros has been stuck in the medieval period for thousands of years. If you spend all your time figuring out how to survive the next winter, the theory goes, you don’t have time to industrialize.

So the long winters have a huge effect on people’s lives. But why do they happen? Why doesn’t Planet Westeros have predictably segmented seasons like we have on Earth?

There are a lot of theories out there, and several of them attempt to explain Westeros’ weather patterns in terms of physical science. As we’ll see later, those explanations are kind of moot, but we’ll look at one of them anyway.

Theory: Westeros’ erratic seasons are caused by a wobbly planetary tilt

First, some science talk: Earth revolves around the sun on a slightly tilted axis (a 23.4° offset of the axis, to be exact), meaning that light hits it at slightly different angles depending on where it is in its revolution. At different times throughout the year, the sun’s rays hits certain parts of the planet more directly, resulting in longer days and warmer temperatures. At other times, parts of the Earth’s surface are tilted away from the sun for longer portions of the day, resulting in shorter days and colder temperatures. Bam: seasons.

It’s important to note that, while Earth operates on a slight tilt, it’s a very stable tilt, so the seasons repeat with unfailing regularity. We have our moon to thank for that—it’s disproportionately large compared to other planetary satellites in the solar system, and it anchors our tilt in place. Without the moon, the Earth might wobble on its axis, resulting in unpredictably long, or short, seasons.

Might that be the situation for Planet Westeros? We know from the second episode of the show (“The Kingsroad”) that the planet has at least one moon. If that moon is small or distant, it could be disrupting the planet’s tilt rather than stabilizing it, which could result in the wonky seasons.

, Doreah tells Daenerys that the situation used to be different. “Once there were two moons in the sky, but one wandered too close to the sun and cracked from the heat.” There’s a strong possibility that Doreah was reciting a myth—she also claimed that dragons emerged from the cracked moon—but myths can sometimes be based in reality. If Planet Westeros did indeed lose one of its moons to some cataclysm, it could have destabilized the planet’s tilt.

But honestly, there’s almost no chance this theory is true, for the simple reason that George R.R. Martin has gone on record as saying that the extended seasons have a fantasy, rather than a scientific, explanation.

Next: So much for science. Bring on the fantasy explanations.

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If you spend all your time figuring out how to survive the next winter, the theory goes, you don’t have time to industrialize.

And IF they Industrialized, they wouldn’t HAVE to sit around all the time figuring out how to survive the Winter!

Maybe if Westeros had industrialised it might find itself in a situation comparable to Brian Aldiss’

whenever winter came along and society regressed to a pre-industrial condition?

The odd thing about this rationale is that it is NOT borne out in human history. Most technological advancements came from societies that had both summers and winters. Areas of the world where summer and warmer temperatures prevail tended to not go any further then needs be.

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An orbital mechanics explanation can be ginned up but the variability makes doing that so hard it is better go with magic!

Magic itself would appear to be a reason why industrialization never really caught on. I mean, if everything good happened in Valeria, then it exploded, and magic died with the dragons, then there wasn’t really a reason to develop tech until the magic died, and the struggle since hasn’t really been conducive to developing mechanical tech. In fact, I have the distinct impression that Seven Kingdom researchers spent a lot more time trying to understand why magic was failing or ways to bring it back than they ever did for alternative or mechanical technology.

GRRM has said that it’s magic but also that we will eventually learn more. What does that mean, exactly? I’m sure we’ll find out in the next two books, should they ever come out!

But we can’t exactly rule out a scientific explanation either (except that GRRM probably never came up with one). Here’s something interesting. We’re currently experiencing El Niño. This is a phenomenon that changes weather patterns significantly throughout much of the world, and it arises in the equatorial Pacific, where there’s little seasonal variation. The timescale for El Niño is a few years, but it’s pretty much unpredictable. The seasons are caused by the axial tilt of the Earth, but El Niño is much more complex (last I checked, about 10 years ago, we didn’t fully understand it) and we don’t know what year it will come or how long it will last when it does. It might make sense for Planetos to have a somewhat negligible axial tilt, so that the seasonal variation is small, but there’s some other climatological phenomenon involving the oddly-shaped yet very large oceans — perhaps involving magic — that works on a much longer timescale.

One thing that we know to be true about axial tilt seasons is that the northern and southern hemispheres have opposite seasons at any given time. Is this the case in Planetos, or are the seasons truly global? If they’re global, that rules out axial tilt as a cause. And while a southern hemisphere has never been mentioned in Planetos, I’d say it most likely has the *same* seasons as Westeros and Essos — because the Long Night was known even in southern Essos, through various surviving myths. Speaking of the Long Night, was it actually night the whole time? Was their sun blotted out? Was it deep in the horizon for the *entire planet*? Was there a side of the world with a Long Day? Difficult questions.

The wild variability of the seasons can’t have a rational explanation because GRRM leaves out too many of the side-effects. There would be massive earthquakes as the planet tries to reach equilibrium. The tides also would change, to the point were the maesters and Ironborn would notice. There would be species extinctions, not only of animals but of plants as well. Long summers haven’t created deserts in Westeros. etc etc.

If GRRM is going to lay a massive turd and try and turn ASOIAF into a science fiction story he would have to use the entirety of the remaining books’ word count explaining everything away.

I always thought they had fairly normal seasons every year and when they referred to “the long winter” it was like a mini ice age….MUCH colder than normal…and the “long summer” was a period, however long, where the weather was very mild and the seasons may be barely distinguishable…but still present.

I doubt these things will ever be revealed in detail in the books, simply because they are beside the point. Or rather, there’s a point in not explaining too much. But theories can be interesting anyway, of course.

My view would be that the religious aspects of the story mirror our own religions in one way or another. That would entail that just because Melisandre, R’hllor’s prophet, has a worldview based on duality doesn’t mean she’s right. R’hllor and the Great Other are more likely just figments of the imagination.

I think GRRM has to explain the various resurrections: Beric Dondarrion, Lady Stoneheart, whomever Azor Ahai turns out to be. Those are not beside the point – they’re central to the story itself.

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Henry Noh on Game of Thrones Theorycraft: the reasons for the (weird) seasons

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